An evaluation of the landscape structure and La Niña climatic anomalies associated with Japanese encephalitis virus outbreaks reported in Australian piggeries in 2022.

The widespread activity of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) reported in previously unaffected regions of eastern and southern Australia in 2022 represents the most significant local arbovirus emergency in almost 50 years. Japanese encephalitis virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in wild ardeid birds and amplified in pigs, the latter of which suffer significant reproductive losses as a result of infection. The landscape epidemiology of JEV in mainland Australia is almost entirely unknown, particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the country where the virus has not been previously documented. Although other areas with endemic JEV circulation in the Indo-Pacific region have demonstrated the importance of wild waterbird-livestock interface in agricultural-wetland mosaics, no such investigation has yet determined the composition and configuration of pathogenic landscapes for Australia. Moreover, the recent emergence in Australia has followed substantial precipitation and temperature anomalies associated with the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This study investigated the landscape epidemiology of JEV outbreaks in Australian piggeries reported between January and April of 2022 to determine the influence of ardeid habitat suitability, hydrogeography, hydrology, land cover and La Niña-associated climate anomalies. Outbreaks of JEV in domestic pigs were associated with intermediate ardeid species richness, cultivated land and grassland fragmentation, waterway proximity, temporary wetlands, and hydrological flow accumulation. This study has identified the composition and configuration of landscape features that were associated with piggery outbreaks reported in 2022 in Australia. Although preliminary, these findings can inform actionable strategies for the development of new One Health JEV surveillance specific to the needs of Australia.

A biogeographical description of the wild waterbird species associated with high-risk landscapes of Japanese encephalitis virus in India.

Wild reservoirs of Japanese encephalitis virus are under-studied globally, which presents critical knowledge gaps for JEV epidemiology and infection ecology despite decades of received wisdom regarding this high-impact mosquito-borne virus. As a result, ardeid birds, generally understood to be the primary reservoirs for JEV, as well as other waterbirds occupying landscapes at high risk for spillover to humans, are frequently ignored by current surveillance mechanisms and infrastructure. This is particularly true in India, which experiences a high annual burden of human outbreaks. Incorporating wild reservoirs into surveillance of human and livestock populations is therefore essential but will first require a data-driven approach to target individual host species. The current study sought to identify preliminary waterbird target species for JEV surveillance development based on species' distributions in high-risk landscapes. Twenty-one target species were identified after adjusting species presence and abundance for the biotic constraints of sympatry. Furthermore, ardeid bird species richness demonstrated a strong non-linear association with the distribution of human JEV outbreaks, which suggested areas with the highest ardeid species richness corresponded to low JEV outbreak risk. No association was identified between JEV outbreaks and anatid or rallid richness. The lack of association between Anatidae and Rallidae family-level diversity and JEV outbreak risk notwithstanding, this study did identify several individual species among these two bird families in high-risk landscapes. The findings from this work provide the first data-driven evidence base to inform wildlife sampling for the monitoring of JEV circulation in outbreak hotspots in India and thus identify good preliminary targets for the development of One Health JEV surveillance.

High-risk landscapes of Japanese encephalitis virus outbreaks in India converge on wetlands, rain-fed agriculture, wild Ardeidae, and domestic pigs and chickens.

BACKGROUND: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus that causes a significant burden of disease across Asia, particularly in India, with high mortality in children. JEV circulates in wild ardeid birds and domestic pig reservoirs, both of which generate sufficiently high viraemias to infect vector mosquitoes, which can then subsequently infect humans. The landscapes of these hosts, particularly in the context of anthropogenic ecotones and resulting wildlife-livestock interfaces, are poorly understood and thus significant knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of JEV persist. This study sought to investigate the landscape epidemiology of JEV outbreaks in India over the period 2010-2020 to determine the influence of shared wetland and rain-fed agricultural landscapes and animal hosts on outbreak risk. METHODS: Using surveillance data from India's National Centre for Disease Control Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, JEV outbreaks were modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson point process and externally validated against independently sourced data. RESULTS: Outbreak risk was strongly associated with the habitat suitability of ardeid birds, both pig and chicken density, and the shared landscapes between fragmented rain-fed agriculture and both river and freshwater marsh wetlands. CONCLUSION: The results from this work provide the most complete understanding of the landscape epidemiology of JEV in India to date and suggest important One Health priorities for control and prevention across fragmented terrain comprising a wildlife-livestock interface that favours spillover to humans.

Low mammalian species richness is associated with Kyasanur Forest disease outbreak risk in deforested landscapes in the Western Ghats, India.

Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV) is a rapidly expanding tick-borne zoonotic virus with natural foci in the forested region of the Western Ghats of South India. The Western Ghats is one of the world's most important biodiversity hotspots and, like many such areas of high biodiversity, is under significant pressure from anthropogenic landscape change. The current study sought to quantify mammalian species richness using ensemble models of the distributions of a sample of species extant in the Western Ghats and to explore its association with KFDV outbreaks, as well as the modifying effects of deforestation on this association. Species richness was quantified as a composite of individual species' distributions, as derived from ensembles of boosted regression tree, random forest, and generalised additive models. Species richness was further adjusted for the potential biotic constraints of sympatric species. Both species richness and forest loss demonstrated strong positive associations with KFDV outbreaks, however forest loss substantially modified the association between species richness and outbreaks. High species richness was associated with increased KFDV risk but only in areas of low forest loss. In contrast, lower species richness was associated with increased KFDV risk in areas of greater forest loss. This relationship persisted when species richness was adjusted for biotic constraints at the taluk-level. In addition, the taluk-level species abundances of three monkey species (Macaca radiata, Semnopithecus hypoleucus, and Semnopithecus priam) were also associated with outbreaks. These results suggest that increased monitoring of wildlife in areas of significant habitat fragmentation may add considerably to critical knowledge gaps in KFDV epidemiology and infection ecology and should be incorporated into novel One Health surveillance development for the region. In addition, the inclusion of some primate species as sentinels of KFDV circulation into general wildlife surveillance architecture may add further value.

Azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus is highly prevalent in the environment of Vietnam, with marked variability by land use type.

Azole-resistant environmental Aspergillus fumigatus presents a threat to public health but the extent of this threat in Southeast Asia is poorly described. We conducted environmental surveillance in the Mekong Delta region of Vietnam, collecting air and ground samples across key land-use types, and determined antifungal susceptibilities of Aspergillus section Fumigati (ASF) isolates and azole concentrations in soils. Of 119 ASF isolates, 55% were resistant (or non-wild type) to itraconazole, 65% to posaconazole and 50% to voriconazole. Azole resistance was more frequent in A. fumigatus sensu stricto isolates (95%) than other ASF species (32%). Resistant isolates and agricultural azole residues were overrepresented in samples from cultivated land. cyp51A gene sequence analysis showed 38/56 resistant A. fumigatus sensu stricto isolates carried known resistance mutations, with TR34 /L98H most frequent (34/38).

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Landscape Suitability Varies by Wetland Habitats and the Degree of Interface between Wild Waterfowl and Poultry in India.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1, constitutes one of the world's most important health and economic concerns given the catastrophic impact of epizootics on the poultry industry, the high mortality attending spillover in humans, and its potential as a source subtype for a future pandemic. Nevertheless, we still lack an adequate understanding of HPAI H5N1 epidemiology and infection ecology. The nature of the wild waterfowl-poultry interface, and the sharing of diverse wetland habitat among these birds, currently underscore important knowledge gaps. India has emerged as a global hotspot for HPAI H5N1, while also providing critical wintering habitat for many species of migratory waterfowl and year-round habitat for several resident waterfowl species. The current study sought to examine the extent to which the wild waterfowl-poultry interface, varied wetland habitat, and climate influence HPAI H5N1 epizootics in poultry in India. Using World Organisation for Animal Health reported outbreaks, this study showed that the wild waterfowl-poultry interface and lacustrine, riparian, and coastal marsh wetland systems were strongly associated with landscape suitability, and these relationships varied by scale. Although increasing poultry density was associated with increasing risk, this was only the case in the absence of wild waterfowl habitat, and only at a local scale. In landscapes increasingly shared between wild waterfowl and poultry, suitability was greater among lower density poultry, again at a local scale only. These findings provide further insight into the occurrence of HPAI H5N1 in India and suggest important landscape targets for blocking the waterfowl-poultry interface to interrupt virus transmission and prevent future outbreaks.

Population structure and diet generalism define a preliminary ecological profile of zoonotic virus hosts in the Western Ghats, India.

The rainforests of the Western Ghats exhibit some of the highest biodiversity on the planet, and yet are undergoing rapid land use change due to the expansion of agriculture and other industries. As the landscape of the region is transformed, more people are coming into conflict with wildlife and becoming exposed to pathogens that previously circulated beyond the boundaries of human incursion. Despite an ecological knowledge imperative, this emerging landscape is ill-defined with respect to the ecology of zoonotic viruses and their mammalian wildlife hosts. Without a better understanding of the underlying infection ecology, the epidemiology of viral spillover will remain elusive and unsuited to the task of predicting and preventing outbreaks. The current investigation explored the association between mammalian zoonotic virus richness and species-level landscape, life-history, and dietary traits to describe an initial ecological profile of zoonotic virus hosts in the Western Ghats. Social group composition and dietary forage were both non-linearly associated with greater zoonotic viral richness among these species, whereby species active in smaller social groups, albeit in higher population densities, and exhibiting a tendency toward a generalist diet hosted more zoonotic viruses. While these findings provide no definitive ecological demarcation of zoonotic virus hosts or their contribution to viral maintenance or amplification, it is expected that this preliminary profile can help to develop targeted wildlife pathogen surveillance programs and to expand the current approach to epidemiological modelling of emerging zoonoses in the region, which typically do not account for the macroecological parameters of infection transmission.

Whence the next pandemic? The intersecting global geography of the animal-human interface, poor health systems and air transit centrality reveals conduits for high-impact spillover.

The health and economic impacts of infectious disease pandemics are catastrophic as most recently manifested by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The emerging infections that lead to substantive epidemics or pandemics are typically zoonoses that cross species boundaries at vulnerable points of animal-human interface. The sharing of space between wildlife and humans, and their domesticated animals, has dramatically increased in recent decades and is a key driver of pathogen spillover. Increasing animal-human interface has also occurred in concert with both increasing globalisation and failing health systems, resulting in a trifecta with dire implications for human and animal health. Nevertheless, to date we lack a geographical description of this trifecta that can be applied strategically to pandemic prevention. This investigation provides the first geographical quantification of the intersection of animal-human interfaces, poor human health system performance and global connectivity via the network of air travel. In so doing, this work provides a systematic, data-driven approach to classifying spillover hazard based on the distribution of animal-human interfaces while simultaneously identifying globally connected cities that are adjacent to these interfaces and which may facilitate global pathogen dissemination. We present this geography of high-impact spillover as a tool for developing targeted surveillance systems and improved health infrastructure in vulnerable areas that may present conduits for future pandemics.

A preliminary ecological profile of Kyasanur Forest disease virus hosts among the mammalian wildlife of the Western Ghats, India.

Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD) virus is one of India's severe arboviruses capable of causing prolonged debilitating disease. It has been expanding beyond its historical endemic locus at an alarming rate over the last two decades. The natural nidus of this zoonosis is located in the monsoon rainforest of the Western Ghats, India, which is one of the world's most important biodiversity hotspots. Definitive reservoir hosts for KFD virus (KFDV) have yet to be delineated, and thus much of the infection ecology of this virus, and its consequent transmission dynamics, remains uncertain. Given its unique biogeographical context, identifying ecological parameters of KFDV relevant to the virus' epidemiology has been complex and challenging. The challenge has been exacerbated by diminished research efforts in wildlife surveillance over the last two decades, coinciding with the expansion of the range of KFD across the region. The current investigation sought to define a preliminary ecological profile of KFDV hosts based on their life history and feeding traits to aid in re-establishing targeted wildlife surveillance and to discern those ecological traits of wildlife hosts that may improve our understanding of KFD epidemiology. The importance of fast-living among KFDV hosts was of special interest with respect to the latter aim. We compared mammalian traits between host and non-host species using general additive models and phylogenetic generalised linear models. This study found that both body mass and forest forage were strongly associated with mammalian host infection status, but that reproductive life history traits were not. These findings will help in structuring ecologically based wildlife surveillance and field investigations, while also helping to parameterise novel epidemiological models of zoonotic infection risk that incorporate species functional traits in a region where biogeography, landscape ecology, and community ecology manifest extraordinary complexity, particularly under growing anthropogenic pressure.

Forest loss shapes the landscape suitability of Kyasanur Forest disease in the biodiversity hotspots of the Western Ghats, India.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic pressure in biodiversity hotspots is increasingly recognized as a major driver of the spillover and expansion of zoonotic disease. In the Western Ghats region of India, a devastating tick-borne zoonosis, Kyasanur Forest disease (KFD), has been expanding rapidly beyond its endemic range in recent decades. It has been suggested that anthropogenic pressure in the form of land use changes that lead to the loss of native forest may be directly contributing to the expanding range of KFD, but clear evidence has not yet established the association between forest loss and KFD risk. METHODS: The current study sought to investigate the relationship between KFD landscape suitability and both forest loss and mammalian species richness, to inform its epidemiology and infection ecology. A total of 47 outbreaks of KFD between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2019 were modelled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process. RESULTS: Both forest loss [relative risk (RR) = 1.83; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-2.51] and mammalian species richness (RR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.16-1.42) were strongly associated with increased risk of KFD and dominated its landscape suitability. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide the first evidence of a clear association between increasing forest loss and risk for KFD. Moreover, the findings also highlight the importance of forest loss in areas of high biodiversity. Therefore, this evidence provides strong support for integrative approaches to public health which incorporate conservation strategies simultaneously protective of humans, animals and the environment.

Divergent geography of Salmonella Wangata and Salmonella Typhimurium epidemiology in New South Wales, Australia.

Salmonella enterica serovar Wangata is an important cause of salmonellosis in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Standard surveillance has not identified a common food source and cases have been attributed to an unknown environmental or wildlife reservoir. Investigation of the spatial distribution of cases may provide valuable insights into local risk factors for infection and the potential role of the environment and wildlife. Using conditional autoregressive analysis, we explored the association between laboratory-confirmed cases of S. Wangata reported to the New South Wales Department of Health and human socio-demographic, climate, land cover and wildlife features. For comparison, a model was also fitted to investigate the association of cases of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium, an established foodborne serotype, with the same features. To determine if cases of S. Wangata were associated with potential wildlife reservoir species, additional variables were included in the S. Wangata model that indicated areas of high suitability for each species. We found that cases of S. Wangata were associated with warmer temperatures, proximity to wetlands and amphibian species richness. In contrast, cases of S. Typhimurium were associated with human demographic features (proportion of the population comprising children <5 years old), climate (mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature) and land cover (proportion comprising urban and evergreen broadleaf forest). These findings support the hypothesis that S. Wangata is likely to be associated with an environmental source. Whilst we expected S. Typhimurium to be associated with the human socio-demographic feature, the significance of the land cover features was surprising and might suggest the epidemiology of S. Typhimurium in Australia is more complex than currently understood.

The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India.

Anthrax is a potentially life-threatening bacterial disease that can spread between wild and livestock animals and humans. Transmission typically occurs indirectly via environmental exposure, with devastating consequences for human and animal health, as well as pastoralist economies. India has a high annual occurrence of anthrax in some regions, but a country-wide delineation of risk has not yet been undertaken. The current study modelled the geographical suitability of anthrax across India and its associated environmental features using a biogeographic application of machine learning. Both biotic and abiotic features contributed to risk across multiple scales of influence. The elephant-livestock interface was the dominant feature in delineating anthrax suitability. In addition, water-soil balance, soil chemistry and historical forest loss were also influential. These findings suggest that the elephant-livestock interface plays an important role in the cycling of anthrax in India. Livestock prevention efforts targeting this interface, particularly within anthropogenic ecotones, may yield successes in reducing ongoing transmission between animal hosts and subsequent zoonotic transmission to humans.

Ecological and life history traits are associated with Ross River virus infection among sylvatic mammals in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important arbovirus given its annual burden of disease and the relatively large number of Australians at risk for infection. This mosquito-borne arbovirus is also a zoonosis, making its epidemiology and infection ecology complex and cryptic. Our grasp of enzootic, epizootic, and zoonotic RRV transmission dynamics is imprecise largely due to a poor understanding of the role of wild mammalian hosts in the RRV system. METHODS: The current study applied a piecewise structural equation model (PSEM) toward an interspecific comparison of sylvatic Australian mammals to characterize the ecological and life history profile of species with a history of RRV infection relative to those species with no such history among all wild mammalian species surveyed for RRV infection. The effects of species traits were assessed through multiple causal pathways within the PSEM framework. RESULTS: Sylvatic mammalian species with a history of RRV infection tended to express dietary specialization and smaller population density. These species were also characterized by a longer gestation length. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first interspecific comparison of wild mammals for RRV infection and identifies some potential targets for future wildlife surveys into the infection ecology of this important arbovirus. An applied RRV macroecology may prove invaluable to the epidemiological modeling of RRV epidemics across diverse sylvatic landscapes, as well as to the development of human and animal health surveillance systems.

Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes.

Climate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on geographic anthrax suitability in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating risk. Machine learning was used to model anthrax suitability in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.

Hydrological features and the ecological niches of mammalian hosts delineate elevated risk for Ross River virus epidemics in anthropogenic landscapes in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The current understanding of the landscape epidemiology of Ross River virus (RRV), Australia's most common arthropod-borne pathogen, is fragmented due to gaps in surveillance programs and the relatively narrow focus of the research conducted to date. This leaves public health agencies with an incomplete understanding of the spectrum of infection risk across the diverse geography of the Australian continent. The current investigation sought to assess the risk of RRV epidemics based on abiotic and biotic landscape features in anthropogenic landscapes, with a particular focus on the influence of water and wildlife hosts. METHODS: Abiotic features, including hydrology, land cover and altitude, and biotic features, including the distribution of wild mammalian hosts, were interrogated using a Maxent model to discern the landscape suitability to RRV epidemics in anthropogenically impacted environments across Australia. RESULTS: Water-soil balance, proximity to controlled water reservoirs, and the ecological niches of four species (Perameles nasuta, Wallabia bicolor, Pseudomys novaehollandiae and Trichosurus vulpecula) were important features identifying high risk landscapes suitable for the occurrence of RRV epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: These results help to delineate human infection risk and thus provide an important perspective for geographically targeted vector, wildlife, and syndromic surveillance within and across the boundaries of local health authorities. Importantly, our analysis highlights the importance of the hydrology, and the potential role of mammalian host species in shaping RRV epidemic risk in peri-urban space. This study offers novel insight into wildlife hosts and RRV infection ecology and identifies those species that may be beneficial to future targeted field surveillance particularly in ecosystems undergoing rapid change.

Molecular epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of viral acute respiratory tract infections in young children. The virus is characterised by distinct seasonality that is dependent upon the latitude and its ability to cause reinfection. Respiratory syncytial virus demonstrates a complex molecular epidemiology pattern as multiple strains and/or genotypes cocirculate during a single epidemic. Previous studies have investigated the relationship between RSV genetic diversity, reinfection, and clinical features. Here, we review the evidence behind this relationship together with the impact that the advancement of whole genome sequencing will have upon our understanding and the need for reconsidering the classification of RSV genotypes.

Managing the risk of Hendra virus spillover in Australia using ecological approaches: A report on three community juries.

BACKGROUND: Hendra virus (HeV) infection is endemic in Australian flying-fox populations. Habitat loss has increased the peri-urban presence of flying-foxes, increasing the risk of contact and therefore viral 'spillovers' into horse and human populations. An equine vaccine is available and horse-husbandry practices that minimize HeV exposure are encouraged, but their adoption is suboptimal. Ecological approaches-such as habitat creation and conservation-could complement vaccination and behavioural strategies by reducing spillover risks, but these are controversial. METHODS: We convened three community juries (two regional; one metropolitan) to elicit the views of well-informed citizens on the acceptability of adding ecological approaches to current interventions for HeV risk. Thirty-one participants of diverse backgrounds, mixed genders and ages were recruited using random-digit-dialling. Each jury was presented with balanced factual evidence, given time to ask questions of expert presenters and, after deliberation, come to well-reasoned conclusions. RESULTS: All juries voted unanimously that ecological strategies should be included in HeV risk management strategies but concluded that current interventions-including vaccination and changing horse-husbandry practices-must remain the priority. The key reasons given for adopting ecological approaches were: (i) they address underlying drivers of disease emergence, (ii) the potential to prevent spillover of other bat-borne pathogens, and (iii) there would be broader community benefits. Juries differed regarding the best mechanism to create/conserve flying-fox habitat: participants in regional centres favoured direct government action, whereas the metropolitan jury preferred to place the burden on landholders. CONCLUSIONS: Informed citizens acknowledge the value of addressing the drivers of bat-borne infectious risks but differ substantially as to the best implementation strategies. Ecological approaches to securing bat habitat could find broad social support in Australia, but disagreement about how best to achieve them indicates the need for negotiation with affected communities to co-develop fair, effective and locally appropriate policies.

Rapidly progressive course of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in mice heterozygous for hexamethylene bis-acetamide inducible 1 (Hexim1) gene.

Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi causes Chagas disease and results in myocardial inflammation and cardiomyopathy. Downregulated Hexim1 expression, as in Hexim1+/- mice, reduces cardiac inflammation and fibrosis following ischemic stress. We asked whether reduced expression of Hexim1 would also afford protection against T. cruzi-induced cardiomyopathy. C57BL/6J (wild type - WT) and Hexim1+/- mice were infected with sub-lethal doses of T. cruzi (Brazil strain), and cardiac function, serologic markers of inflammation and tissue pathology were examined. Infected Hexim1+/- mice had compromised cardiac function, altered expression of both pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, and increased inflammation and fibrosis. Cardiac failure was evidenced by severely diminished heart rate, compensatory increase in respiratory rate, and abnormally high left ventricular mass with severe transmural inflammation. Lungs displayed intense peribronchial inflammation and fibrosis extending into the parenchyma. We also observed Smad3-serine208 phosphorylation in hearts and lungs of infected mice, suggesting increased TGF-ß signaling pathway activity. This was more pronounced in Hexim1+/- mice and correlated with increased fibrosis in these tissues. Conspicuous splenomegaly in the Hexim1+/- mice most likely resulted from the observed extensive white pulp expansion. T. cruzi infection induced colonic dilatation and marked villous atrophy in both the WT and Hexim1+/- mice but more so in the latter. The profound exacerbation of pathologic findings suggests a protective role for Hexim1 in T. cruzi infection.

The impact of human population pressure on flying fox niches and the potential consequences for Hendra virus spillover.

Hendra virus (HeV) is an emerging pathogen of concern in Australia given its ability to spillover from its reservoir host, pteropid bats, to horses and further on to humans, and the severe clinical presentation typical in these latter incidental hosts. Specific human pressures over recent decades, such as expanding human populations, urbanization, and forest fragmentation, may have altered the ecological niche of Pteropus species acting as natural HeV reservoirs and may modulate spillover risk. This study explored the influence of inter-decadal net human local migration between 1970 and 2000 on changes in the habitat suitability to P. alecto and P. conspicillatus from 1980 to 2015 in eastern Australia. These ecological niches were modeled using boosted regression trees and subsequently fitted, along with additional landscape factors, to HeV spillovers to explore the spatial dependency of this zoonosis. The spatial model showed that the ecological niche of these two flying fox species, the human footprint, and proximity to woody savanna were each strongly associated with HeV spillover and together explained most of the spatial dependency exhibited by this zoonosis. These findings reinforce the potential for anthropogenic pressures to shape the landscape epidemiology of HeV spillover.

Wetlands, wild Bovidae species richness and sheep density delineate risk of Rift Valley fever outbreaks in the African continent and Arabian Peninsula.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, vector-borne viral zoonosis that has significantly impacted public health, livestock health and production, and food security over the last three decades across large regions of the African continent and the Arabian Peninsula. The potential for expansion of RVF outbreaks within and beyond the range of previous occurrence is unknown. Despite many large national and international epidemics, the landscape epidemiology of RVF remains obscure, particularly with respect to the ecological roles of wildlife reservoirs and surface water features. The current investigation modeled RVF risk throughout Africa and the Arabian Peninsula as a function of a suite of biotic and abiotic landscape features using machine learning methods. Intermittent wetland, wild Bovidae species richness and sheep density were associated with increased landscape suitability to RVF outbreaks. These results suggest the role of wildlife hosts and distinct hydrogeographic landscapes in RVF virus circulation and subsequent outbreaks may be underestimated. These results await validation by studies employing a deeper, field-based interrogation of potential wildlife hosts within high risk taxa.